MLB 2020–2026 · 3 decision modules live

Grading the decisions, not the players.

Every in-game decision has a correct answer in expected-value terms. We find it, grade the actual call, and surface who's adding or costing their team runs — across every decision type we can measure.

How it works

01 — Identify the decision

Every baserunning opportunity, steal attempt, or tactical call is a discrete, time-stamped decision with a clear binary or categorical outcome.

02 — Compute the break-even

RE24 run-expectancy tables give us the exact success rate required to make a risky call worth it in expected-runs terms — before any outcome is known.

03 — Grade the call

We estimate the true probability of success using empirical binning on observable pre-play factors. Good decisions beat break-even; bad ones don't.

Decisions graded

~55K

Across all live modules, 2020–2026

Seasons covered

7

2020–2026 · 2026 in progress

Live modules

3

Send/Hold · Steal · IBB

External validation

+0.78

Send/Hold ρ vs. BR XBT%

Decision modules

Each module grades a specific category of in-game call using the same expected-value framework.

Scope and limitations

This tool grades the decision layeronly — whether a call was correct given what was knowable at the moment it was made. It does not measure player ability, execution quality, or factors outside the decision-maker's direct control. All probability estimates use empirical binning on season-average statistics; play-level tracking is not available for every input. 2020 entries reflect a 60-game season and carry higher uncertainty. Full methodology →