Grading the decisions,
not the players.
Every in-game decision has a correct answer in expected-value terms. We find it, grade the actual call, and surface who's adding or costing their team runs — across every decision type we can measure.
How it works
Every baserunning opportunity, steal attempt, or tactical call is a discrete, time-stamped decision with a clear binary or categorical outcome.
RE24 run-expectancy tables give us the exact success rate required to make a risky call worth it in expected-runs terms — before any outcome is known.
We estimate the true probability of success using empirical binning on observable pre-play factors. Good decisions beat break-even; bad ones don't.
Decisions graded
~73K
Across all live modules, 2020–2026
Seasons covered
7
2020–2026 · 2026 in progress
Live modules
4
Send/Hold · Steal · IBB · PH
Spearman ρ
+0.78
Send/Hold send rate vs. BR XBT%, n=120
Decision modules
Each module grades a specific category of in-game call using the same expected-value framework.
Send/Hold Grader
Grading third-base coach decisions on extra-base opportunities
2020–2026
Steal Attempt Grader
Grading stolen-base attempts by expected value
2020–2026
IBB Decision Grader
Was that intentional walk worth the run-expectancy cost?
2020–2026
Pinch Hit Grader
Did the pinch hit substitution improve expected offense given the pitcher matchup?
2020–2026
Starter Pull Timing Grader
Scoped for a future release
Bunt Decision Grader
Scoped for a future release
Scope and limitations
This tool grades the decision layeronly — whether a call was correct given what was knowable at the moment it was made. It does not measure player ability, execution quality, or factors outside the decision-maker's direct control. All probability estimates use empirical binning on season-average statistics; play-level tracking is not available for every input. 2020 entries reflect a 60-game season and carry higher uncertainty. Full methodology →