Pinch Hit Grader
Every pinch hit appearance is a decision. The manager pulls a hitter and sends up a substitute — but does the pinch hitter represent a genuine offensive upgrade against this specific pitcher (accounting for handedness) given the base-out state? We grade each substitution against the wOBA-against matchup and the RE24 run value of the situation.
Key finding: 64.5% of pinch hit substitutions improve expected offense based on platoon matchup — managers are mostly making the right call. Average run value: +3.1 per 100 PH appearances. The pre-universal-DH era (2021, NL) shows the starkest advantage: teams averaged +4.9 RV/100 pinch-hitting for pitchers, nearly 2× the post-DH rate.
PH appearances graded
23,946
Across 210 team-seasons, 2020–2026
Good PH rate
64.5%
Platoon upgrade vs. replaced batter
Avg run value / 100 PH
+3.1
Expected runs added per 100 substitutions
2021 NL peak
+4.9
RV/100 when NL still required pitchers to bat
By team-year
About these grades
Each substitution is graded by comparing the pinch hitter's season wOBA vs. the pitcher's hand against the replaced batter's same split. Batters with fewer than 50 PA against a pitcher hand use the league-average split for that hand and season. Run value is leverage-weighted by the RE24 value of the base-out state at substitution time, divided by the frequency-weighted mean RE across all MLB plate appearances (0.477). Entries marked Low have fewer than 20 PH appearances and carry higher uncertainty. 2020 entries are flagged 60g. Entries marked Live are from the current in-progress season.