Send/Hold Grader
Every time a runner on second base can attempt to score on an outfield hit, the third-base coach makes a decision. We grade each call against the break-even probability from run expectancy, the point where sending becomes the correct choice.
Key finding: In every situation we analyzed, the empirical probability of scoring exceeded the break-even threshold. Every run lost came from holding too often, not from sending at the wrong time.
Worst season (per 100)
11.93
MIL 2020: Ed Sedar (low sample)
Worst full-sample season
9.37
MIA 2023: Griffin Benedict
Best full-sample season
2.68
ATL 2022: Ron Washington
Typical send rate
76–81%
Middle 50% of team-seasons, 2020–2026
About these grades
Grades reflect expected run value at the moment of decision using empirical P(safe) from 18 situational bins (hit type × field position × outs) against RE24 break-even probabilities. P(safe) is estimated from season-average arm strength and sprint speed; play-level tracking is not available. Entries marked Low have fewer than 150 graded opportunities and carry higher uncertainty. 2020 entries are flagged 60g (60-game season). Entries marked 2026 are from the current season (data final). Full methodology →