Send/Hold Grader
Every time a runner on second base can attempt to score on an outfield hit, the third-base coach makes a decision. We grade each call against the break-even probability from run expectancy — the point where sending becomes the correct choice.
Key finding: In every situation we analyzed, the empirical probability of scoring exceeded the break-even threshold. Every run lost came from holding too often — not from sending at the wrong time.
Worst season (per 100)
11.97
MIL 2020 — Ed Sedar (low sample)
Worst full-sample season
9.42
MIA 2023 — Griffin Benedict
Best full-sample season
2.70
ATL 2022 — Ron Washington
Typical send rate
78–84%
Middle-of-pack teams, 2020–2025
About these grades
Grades reflect expected run value at the moment of decision using empirical P(safe) from 18 situational bins (hit type × field position × outs) against RE24 break-even probabilities. P(safe) is estimated from season-average arm strength and sprint speed — play-level tracking is not available. Entries marked Low have fewer than 150 graded opportunities and carry higher uncertainty. 2020 entries are flagged 60g (60-game season). Entries marked Live are from the current in-progress season and will change as new games are graded. Full methodology →